China's westward energy strategy faces many challe

2022-08-03
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China's westward energy strategy faces many challenges

many variables have taken place in China's energy strategy in recent years, which is worth tracking and observing. According to the China economic times on July 21, from next year to 2020, PetroChina will invest 300billion yuan to strengthen the development in Xinjiang and launch the grand strategy of Xinjiang. The report also said that in the next decade, PetroChina will build Xinjiang into the country's most important oil and gas production base, oil refining and chemical industry base, oil reserve base, engineering and technical service support base, as well as a strategic channel, transportation headquarters and financial headquarters for introducing oil and gas resources from Central Asia to Russia. Experts say that the rudiment of PetroChina's Xinjiang war strategy is emerging

at present, China's dependence on foreign oil is as high as 52%, which has affected the national economic security. In order to ensure a stable and long-term energy supply and weaken the "Malacca" effect, China began to adjust its energy strategy to the West and achieved some results. China's kink intensity will drop rapidly. It is believed that China's energy cooperation with Central Asian countries is geographically convenient, and there is no need to consider too much interference from external forces. In addition, China and Russia share the common goal of weakening US influence in Asia. Therefore, China is trying to make Xinjiang a major international energy channel connecting China and Central Asian countries, and make Central Asia and Russia its main energy suppliers. However, due to a series of factors such as terrorism and the potential risks in Central Asia brought about by the Kyrgyz coup, China's energy cooperation with Central Asia and Russia also faces many difficulties. The main hidden worries include the instability of the situation in Xinjiang, the political turmoil in Central Asian countries, the rise of American influence in Central Asia and so on

instability in Xinjiang

terrorist activities have seriously affected the stability of Xinjiang, China. The economic benefits of its products are among the best, restricting the realization of Xinjiang's plan to become an international energy channel connecting China and Central Asian countries, and increasing difficulties for Central Asia and Russia to become China's main energy suppliers. Since the July 5 incident broke out in Xinjiang, the internal unstable factors have not been completely eliminated. On the one hand, the Sino Uygur relationship is very fragile, and the estrangement and misunderstanding between the two sides are still very deep, which has buried the air conditioning method of high and low temperature impact testing machine: hidden danger for the outbreak of ethnic conflict. On the other hand, the mastermind behind the terrorist attacks in Xinjiang has never been arrested, and its terrorist attacks are extremely deceptive, which is always a hidden danger to the stability of Xinjiang

in addition, the unstable situation in Afghanistan has provided broad activity soil for ethnic separatists in Xinjiang, which has had an impact on the stability of Xinjiang that cannot be underestimated. As early as the Taliban was in power, members of the "East Turkistan" organization came to Afghanistan to receive terrorist ideas and training. After the United States launched the war in Afghanistan, some members moved to central and South Asia or sneaked back to Xinjiang. The other part remains in Afghanistan and has close ties with the Taliban. Agence France Presse reported that NATO air strikes in Afghanistan killed 15 terrorists, 13 of whom were Uygurs in Xinjiang. Previously, it was reported that some members of the "East Iraq movement" trained in Afghanistan and then sneaked back to Xinjiang to launch a series of terrorist attacks, which had a serious impact on the stability of Xinjiang

in addition, in recent years, the Islamic fundamentalist movement in Central Asia has colluded with national separatist forces and international terrorist forces, posing a great threat to the security situation in Central Asia and surrounding areas. Xinjiang has a long border with Central Asian countries, so Xinjiang will face the infiltration and threat of extremist religious organizations, terrorist organizations and national independent organizations for a long time

the aftermath of the Kyrgyz coup

the Kyrgyz coup led to an increase in the risk of instability in Central Asia and weakened the stability of the Central Asian countries' continuous energy supply to China. After the coup in Kyrgyzstan, the interim government appointed Otunbayeva as the transitional president, but her regime still lacks legitimacy. It is also worth paying attention to whether she can control the domestic situation. Since the coup, there have been threeorfour riots in Osh region in southern Kyrgyzstan. The "aftermath of the coup" caused by this kind of political instability has made the idea of anarchism recognized by many people. As long as there is some disturbance, the riot may break out

in addition, the Kyrgyz coup has caused tension between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which share the same political vulnerability. Panzhiping, director of the Central Asia Institute of the Xinjiang Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out: "Kyrgyzstan's tendency of 'Afghanization' has become increasingly clear. If the demonstration effect of the coup is transmitted to the other two countries, Central Asia will enter a dangerous period of turbulence." The instability in Central Asia will directly weaken the stability of Central Asian countries' sustainable energy supply to China and restrict the implementation of China's "westward" energy strategy

US influence in Central Asia increases

the approach of Russia and the United States will lead to an increase in US influence in Central Asia, which will have a profound impact on China's energy cooperation with Central Asian countries and Russia

after the September 11 incident, Russia broke the rules of the game for centuries and ceded the Central Asia corridor to the U.S. military, showing the trend of closer U.S. - Russian relations. Recently, it was reported that "When the United States blamed Russia on the Georgia issue and the largest spy exchange case occurred between the two countries, Russia launched a commercial satellite for the United States. This picture is a good reflection of the new trend in Russia US relations. This new trend is that Russia is willing to lower its posture to the United States in order to develop its modern economy and get rid of the hat of building a country with resources. On some issues of concern to the west, Russia is not And then show an aggressive posture in exchange for strong support from the United States and Western Europe for Russia's economic modernization. " The approach of the United States and Russia has made the United States' influence in Central Asia begin to rise, posing a serious threat to Western China and weakening the security of China's "westward" energy strategy

according to the Russian independent on July 12, in order to prevent Kyrgyzstan from closing the Manas base, the United States plans to expand its military presence in Uzbekistan, build a new military base in Central Asia, and plan to build border checkpoints and training centers in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. The U.S. military is responsible for training local security forces. The US media also disclosed that the US plans to expand its military presence in the entire Central Asian region. Therefore, China has to consider the threat from the United States facing its "westward" energy strategy

the approach of Russia and the United States has its own strategic considerations, but it will inevitably have an impact on China Russia strategic partnership. In view of the common goal of China and Russia to weaken the influence of the United States in Asia, the energy cooperation between China and Russia will continue to make progress. The recent completion of the Russian East Siberia Pacific oil pipeline by China and Russia is an example. However, this progress still lacks sustainability and stability. On the one hand, Russia has always been vigilant towards the rise of China and believes that China's rise threatens Russia's security. On the other hand, the common goal of the two countries to weaken the influence of the United States in Asia is not unchanging. Once this goal is weakened, another situation may arise in the energy cooperation between the two sides

China's energy strategy "looking west" faces a variety of complex problems, which are difficult to eliminate in the short term. China must take into account the geopolitical effects caused by "looking west" and exporting Excel files, as well as a series of security problems caused by "looking west". How China deals with these problems still deserves attention

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